Do national convention cities make a difference in elections?

Republicans are expected to announce today that Tampa will be the site of the 2012 Republican National Convention, beating traditional Republican locales — Phoenix and Salt Lake City.

“Florida remains a perennial swing state where a convention could sway undecided voters,” the Associated Press says.

Really? People choose who will be president based on where a convention is held? History — at least recent history — doesn’t support the conclusion, at least for Republicans.

It’s been 20 years since a state that’s hosted the Republican National Convention went Republican in the November election. Picking a “swing state” over a “solidly friendly” state is a relatively new tradition and it usually doesn’t work. 1980 was the last time it did, when Ronald Reagan won Michigan over Jimmy Carter.

Here’s the list: